Data released by Vietnam's National Statistics Office in early October 2026 show GDP grew 9.95% year on year in the third quarter, the fastest third-quarter pace since 2021. Growth for the first nine months reached 9.01%, accelerating quarter by quarter (Q1: 8.15%; Q2: 8.81%) and well above the 7.85% recorded in the same period of 2025. On this trajectory, the government's target of at least 10% growth for 2026 is within reach.
Three engines accelerating together
- Industry and construction: the sector expanded more than 11% in nine months, with construction up 12.22% as large projects came on stream and public investment was disbursed faster.
- Trade: goods trade reached about US$888 billion, up more than 30%. Exports rose 24.5% to US$434.3 billion; imports grew faster (36.7%), largely machinery and components that feed the next round of export orders.
- Foreign capital: registered FDI reached US$50.36 billion, up 76.4%, while disbursed FDI hit US$21.07 billion, a five-year high, with more than 82% going into manufacturing.
Policy is adding momentum
The National Assembly has set a target of at least 10% average annual growth for 2026–2030. Resolution 68-NQ/TW on private-sector development is being turned into concrete measures: the lump-sum tax and business licence fee for household businesses were abolished from 1 January 2026, the tax-free revenue threshold was raised to VND500 million a year, and the GoGlobal programme now helps firms expand abroad. By the end of September, public investment disbursement reached nearly VND643 trillion, about 63% of the plan, leaving substantial room to support growth in the fourth quarter.
What it means for markets and companies
High growth combined with record foreign investment is a strong foundation for listed-company earnings, especially in construction materials, infrastructure, industrial parks, logistics, banking and retail. Vietnam also formally joined FTSE Russell's Secondary Emerging market category on 21 September 2026, putting the stock market on the radar of more international funds. The Asian Development Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.8% in September, the highest in ASEAN, and actual data so far have beaten that forecast.
What to watch
Average inflation over nine months was 4.52%, higher than last year, and goods trade showed a deficit of about US$19.4 billion as input imports surged. The ADB has also cautioned that rapid investment and credit growth call for careful financial risk management. Still, because imports are mostly production inputs, the deficit looks more like a sign of an expanding manufacturing cycle than of weakness.
vietnamii.com view: the economy enters the final quarter with stronger and more broadly based momentum. If public investment keeps flowing and exports hold their pace, 2026 could be Vietnam's fastest-growing year in more than a decade.