Viet Dragon Securities (VDSC) forecasts that fourth-quarter 2026 net profit of companies listed on HOSE could rise about 24% year on year, VnExpress reported on 10 November. That would be the slowest growth since Q3 2025, signalling a deceleration after a strong run, though still a solid double-digit gain.
Looking back at Q3: profit up 53%
According to VDSC data, after-tax profit attributable to parent-company shareholders of HOSE-listed firms rose 53% year on year in Q3. Banks, construction, building materials, industrial parks and technology kept growing well. Real estate posted the largest profit improvement, at 32%, with major contributions from Vingroup and Vinhomes; banks ranked second at 10%. Retail kept rising, while technology, chemicals and securities firms were under pressure.
Q4: a high base, but momentum remains
SSI Research shares the view that growth may keep slowing in Q4 because of a high comparison base, especially in commodity-linked sectors and retail. Some companies that already exceeded their full-year profit targets after nine months may book larger cost provisions in the final quarter.
Even so, the picture has many positives:
- Non-financial companies and insurers are expected to be the two main drivers, with profit improvement above 40%.
- Banks should stay stable at a high level, growing by double digits.
- Energy, mainly thermal power, is expected to post strong profit growth on high electricity output and selling prices.
- Upstream and midstream oil and gas: recent profits fell short of estimates because of large costs, but VDSC sees these as mostly one-off; a heavy workload and high charter rates are expected to lift Q4 revenue and profit.
- Consumer and retail firms benefit more from higher prices than higher volumes; margins may have peaked around mid-2026.
Key takeaways
- VDSC expects Q4 2026 profits of HOSE-listed firms to grow about 24%, after 53% in Q3.
- The slowdown mainly reflects a high base rather than weakening fundamentals.
- Non-financials, insurers, banks, thermal power and oil and gas are expected to keep momentum.