For the first time ever, Vietnam's total goods trade has passed US$1 trillion, and it happened in October rather than at year-end. According to preliminary Ministry of Industry and Trade data released in early November 2026, trade for the first ten months reached about US$1,010.6 billion, up 32.3% year on year. When Vietnam joined the WTO in 2007 the figure was just over US$100 billion, so trade has grown roughly tenfold.
Key figures
- Exports: about US$499.2 billion, up 27.5%. Processed industrial goods make up more than 90% of export value.
- Imports: about US$511.3 billion, up 37.4%, of which more than 94% are production inputs: machinery, components and materials.
- October: exports of US$64.7 billion and a surplus of about US$7.3 billion, far above September's roughly US$1.3 billion.
- Diversification: 37 product groups exceeded US$1 billion and eight topped US$10 billion.
Fast import growth is a good sign
At first glance, imports growing faster than exports might raise concerns about the trade balance. But when almost all imports are production goods, they are really inputs for expanding production lines, especially in electronics and technology. October's large surplus shows that earlier imports are now turning into exports. It also fits a familiar seasonal pattern: the fourth quarter is peak shipping time for the holiday season in the US and Europe.
Markets and supporting policy
The US remains Vietnam's largest surplus market (about US$140 billion), followed by the EU (about US$41 billion). Conversely, Vietnam runs deficits with China, South Korea and ASEAN, in line with its role as an assembly and manufacturing hub in regional supply chains. The free trade network keeps expanding: the Vietnam–EFTA agreement was signed on 18 October 2026, and existing deals such as CPTPP, EVFTA and UKVFTA still have plenty of untapped tariff preferences.
Impact on Vietnam's economy
- Growth: positive net exports in Q4 contribute directly to the 2026 target of GDP growth of 10% or more.
- Jobs and income: textiles, footwear, electronics and wood are labour-intensive; more orders help stabilise year-end employment.
- Exchange rate: foreign currency from the trade surplus and disbursed FDI (US$21.07 billion in nine months) supports a stable dong.
- Listed companies: seaports, logistics, industrial parks and exporters benefit directly from higher cargo volumes.
What to watch
The FDI sector still accounts for more than 80% of exports, while domestic firms are growing more slowly (about 8%). Raising local content and making better use of rules of origin are key, in line with the private-sector support and GoGlobal programmes now under way.
vietnamii.com view: the US$1 trillion milestone confirms Vietnam as one of the world's most open economies. With healthy year-end orders and a new agreement with EFTA, full-year 2026 trade is likely to reach around US$1.1 trillion, as the Government expects.